Legal

Risk Disclosure

Cross-venue arbitrage can lose money. Read this before connecting a venue or turning on auto-execute.

Last updated · October 9, 2026
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01In short

You can lose money using Halcira. "Arbitrage" here means buying opposite outcomes of the same event on two venues for less than $1.00 in total. This only works if both orders fill at the prices shown, both venues settle the event the same way, and both venues pay out. Any of these can fail.

Only trade money you can afford to lose. If you're unsure whether this is right for you, get independent advice.

02Risks specific to cross-venue arbitrage

  • Settlement mismatchTwo venues can list what looks like the same event but use different wording, data sources, deadlines or dispute processes. If they settle differently, you can lose both legs. This is the biggest risk in this strategy.
  • Execution and legging riskOne order can fill while the other doesn't, or fills at a worse price. The engine will try to hedge, but the hedge can cost money. Prices can also move in the milliseconds between detection and execution.
  • Liquidity and depthThe depth shown can disappear before your order arrives. Large orders can move prices against you.
  • Fees and costsTrading, deposit, withdrawal, network and conversion fees can turn a positive edge into a loss. The edges shown may not include every fee.
  • Capital lock-upYour money is tied up until the event settles, sometimes for months. A small edge over a long period can be a poor return compared with other uses of the same money.

03Venue and counterparty risk

  • Venue failureA venue can halt trading, change its rules, void markets, freeze accounts, be hacked or go insolvent. Your funds there may be delayed or lost.
  • Stablecoins and blockchainsVenues that settle in USDC or other crypto assets carry extra risks: depegging, smart-contract bugs, network congestion, irreversible transfers and wallet compromise.
  • TransfersMoving money between venues takes time and costs fees, so you may not be able to rebalance quickly.

04Technology risk

  • Software errorsHalcira, the venues' APIs, or your own device and connection can fail, lag or behave unexpectedly. Bugs can cause missed, duplicated or wrong orders.
  • Auto-executeWith auto-execute on, orders are placed without asking you. Mistakes in your settings can cause losses quickly.
  • Data accuracyPrices, depth and balances come from third parties and may be delayed or wrong.
  • Changing rulesPrediction markets face changing and sometimes conflicting rules. A venue can become unavailable where you live, and you may be forced to close positions.
  • EligibilityYou are responsible for being allowed to use each venue. Breaking a venue's terms can lead to frozen funds.
  • TaxesHow gains, losses and hedges are taxed depends on where you live and can be complex. Keep records and consult a tax professional.

06Sports betting and the Halcira app

  • Edges are estimatesA "+EV" price is the gap between one book's price and a fair price worked out from other books. That fair price can be wrong, and even a real edge loses often: most single bets are close to coin flips.
  • VarianceExpect long losing runs. Small stakes and daily loss caps keep a bad run from doing lasting damage.
  • AutomationIn Auto, the Halcira app bets without asking you. A wrong setting, bad data or a bug can lose money quickly. Stop it at any time with Stop live betting.
  • Venue riskNovig can change prices, fees, limits or rules, void bets, or be unavailable. Live (in-game) bets carry a taker fee on Novig; the Halcira app only bets before games start.
  • Play responsiblyOnly bet money you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Novig also lets you set limits or exclude yourself.

07About the figures on this site

Numbers marked sample data, such as P&L, fill rates, execution times and locked edge, are illustrations and not real or typical results. Past performance, real or simulated, doesn't predict future results.

Halcira doesn't give investment advice. See the Terms of Service.